At 11 a.m. CDT on Wednesday, Sept. 30, USDA will release the quarterly Grain Stocks report as well as the annual Small Grains Summary. In the Stocks report, USDA will take one last look at the 2025 corn and soybean crops in the U.S.

GRAIN STOCKS

Corn:

Heading into the 2026-27 marketing year, USDA is forecasting a sharp decline in U.S. corn supplies by the time we reach August 2027. However, near-term supplies are a different picture -- with carry-in stocks consistently forecast to land just shy of 2 billion bushels (bb) and a six-year high for the U.S. On Wednesday, USDA will use survey data collected during the first two weeks of September to obtain a clearer idea of the amount of corn still left over from last year's crop.

For Wednesday, the Dow Jones survey of 14 firms gave an average trade guess of 1.924 bb of stocks compared to USDA's September estimate of 1.922 bb. I personally am penciling a lower carryout than the Dow Jones pre-report guess, at 1.88 bb. I've reached that number using USDA's demand through the first three quarters (a record 13.3 bb) with some marginal adjustments to exports based on Census Bureau data, then adding in fourth-quarter forecasts, which I expect will sum to a record 3.42 bb of disappearance in the June-through-August period. Moreover, I have a lower bias to the Sept. 1 stocks estimate depending on how USDA chooses to address 2025 corn production, discussed next.

Usually by nine months into the calendar year, the previous fall's corn crop is a thing of the past and hardly worth a second glance in a forward-looking marketplace. However, this time around feels unique, with USDA's 186.5-bushel-per-acre (bpa) national yield estimate combined with a record-setting 6.35 bb feed and residual forecast being the topic of much discussion through the past several months. On Wednesday, USDA will finally revisit its 2025 production estimates, and a cut is expected by many to explain the high degree of residual disappearance through the marketing year. I personally believe the 2025 national corn yield was closer to 183 bpa, or a crop size roughly 300 million bushels (mb) less -- albeit still record large. However, I don't see USDA making that large of a change in Wednesday's report, and any change is likely to be offset to some degree by lower feed and residual usage anyway. Ultimately, 2025-26 feed and residual may remain somewhat inflated as a way of balancing supply and demand to meet the survey's findings.

Soybeans:

As September draws to a close, a wet start to harvest across the central U.S. soy belt has led to a sharp short-term spike in basis levels and sent meal prices to over two-year highs as crushers scramble to bridge the gap to new-crop supplies. On Wednesday, USDA will offer clarity on the true amount of old-crop reserves, which were on hand to begin this month as well as the 2026-27 crop year.

On Wednesday, the Dow Jones survey predicts that 323 mb of soybean stocks were held between commercial and on-farm operations as of Sept. 1. This would be nearly identical to a year ago when 2024-25 ending stocks landed at 325 mb. The Dow Jones guess would imply (taking imports into account to beginning supplies) 738 mb of soybean disappearance over the June through August period, the largest fourth-quarter disappearance in six years if true. I wouldn't blame anyone for being confused by this number. After all, by my math, crush and exports through the fourth quarter summed to roughly 850 mb (estimates of 650 mb crushed and 200 mb exported). The catch is the feed, seed and residual category -- which is almost always a negative adjustment by USDA in the fourth quarter to explain and balance annual usage to match the survey's findings. I am personally estimating Sept. 1 stocks at 315 mb on lower crush, but larger exports and seed/residual usage as compared to USDA.

Wheat:

Wednesday's Sept. 1 wheat stocks will reflect 2026 supplies after the first quarter of the 2026-27 marketing year, which began back on June 1. In this sense, implied disappearance will be directly derived from the findings of the Small Grains Summary released at the same time and discussed in further detail below.

On Wednesday, the 14 analysts surveyed by Dow Jones believe 1.849 bb of wheat were on hand in the U.S. as of the beginning of this month. This would be 13% lower than a year ago and the lowest Sept. 1 stocks in three years if realized. Assuming USDA is correct in its September WASDE estimate of 2.591 bb of U.S. wheat supplies in 2026-27 (this includes the 140 mb of imports), then first quarter disappearance would be roughly 740 mb and the lowest first-quarter usage in four years, largely due to lower exports. I am personally estimating closer to 1.8 bb of wheat stocks to begin the second quarter -- driven by lower production compared to USDA.

SMALL GRAINS SUMMARY

Also on Wednesday, USDA will release its annual Small Grains Summary -- a recap of wheat, oats and barley crops in the United States for 2026. Last year, 55,700 producers were surveyed over the first two weeks of September to inform the report, combined with data from USDA objective yield surveys conducted through the growing season.

For wheat, the Dow Jones survey predicts 1.527 bb of production in 2026, which would be down slightly from USDA's estimate in the September WASDE and 23% lower than the 2025 crop, as well as a 56-year low in U.S. wheat production.

As for the different varieties, drought across the Southern Plains is expected to be prevalent in Wednesday's results -- with hard red production expected to land near 462 mb, or 43% lower than in 2025. Soft red production is expected to have been down 19% year over year to 287 mb, while white winter wheat is thought to have been the most stable crop at 238 mb, down just 2.5% from 2025. As for spring wheat and durum, the pre-report estimate of 539 mb would be down 8.5% from 2025 and the lowest in five years. The percentage of U.S. wheat production as winter wheat (65%) would be the lowest in six years as well, based on crop data thus far.

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Join us for DTN's webinar at 12:30 p.m. CDT on Wednesday, Sept. 30, as we take a deeper look into USDA's recent estimates and what they could mean for markets moving forward. Questions are welcome, and registrants will receive a replay link for viewing at their convenience. Register here for Wednesday's September Grain Stocks and Small Grains Summary report webinar: https://www.dtn.com/….

Rhett Montgomery can be reached at rhett.montgomery@dtn.com

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